Influenza-Like-Illness (ILI) Forecast: %ILI is measured by the CDC as the percent of outpatient visits with ILI symptoms. The shaded (grey) portion of the figure is the modeled %ILI 1-4 weeks forecast with distribution quantile ranges illustrated by red (1-99%), yellow (5-95%), and green (25-75%). See the 'About' tab for more information.

Distributions for annual forecast targets. Probability distributions describing model solutions/forecast for onset week (as defined by CDC), peak week, and peak intensity. Where an actual value is detected in the data, it is represented as a grey line. The shaded area indicates a sliding window of 'correct' predictions as defined by the CDC Flu Challenge guidelines.