Modeling the Severity and Transmissibility of COVID-19 in the USA with Intrinsic Behavior Change

The ID team at PSI is developing forecasting models to understand and predict the likely transmission of COVID-19 both within the USA and around the world using a suite of mechanistic models as well as statistical techniques. Some of the questions we seek to answer include: To what extent different mitigation and containment strategies affect the resulting number of ICU cases and/or deaths? This question will become ever more nuanced as communities begin to relax current "lockdown" orders to varying degrees. Additionally, to what extent do spatial and temporal changes in weather (temperature, precipitation, and humidity) as well as UV radiation modulate the disease's evolution? Through a combination of unique data collection, model refinement, and scientific investigation, we hope that our investigations can shed valuable insight on these questions.

All codes developed are being made available through web portals as well as GitHub repositories.

Link for web portal:

Link for GitHub repositories:

Extra Info:

Infectious Disease (ID)


Intensive Care Unit (ICU)

SIR Model

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