Live Coronal Prediction

April 8, 2024 Total Solar Eclipse

A New Prediction Paradigm:

A Data-Assimilative, Continuously Running Prediction Model Updated in Near Real Time

Brightness Image, Solar North Up
Brightness Image, Solar North Up
How It Will Look in Dallas, TX at Totality
How It Will Look in Dallas, TX at Totality
This is our latest prediction of the solar corona for the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse. The above images show two versions of the predicted white light brightness in the corona at totality; the left is with solar north up, and the right is for Dallas, Texas. Click on the link to see the orientation of the corona for your location. The images have been processed with a radially-graded filter, to approximate what a human eye might see during the eclipse.

How the Prediction has Evolved in Time
Evolving View as Seen from Earth
The Sun is near the maximum phase of the solar cycle, so the solar magnetic field is evolving rapidly. To better capture the dynamic nature of the Sun at this time, we are using a time-dependent MHD model that is updated in near real-time with the latest measurements of the surface magnetic field.These animations show how the Sun and our prediction are evolving with time. The animation on the left shows how the prediction at totality has evolved to the present. The animation on the right shows the modeled evolution of the Sun from the start of the prediction.

Magnetic Structure, Prediction in Time
Magnetic Structure, Earth's Evolving View
These animations are the same as those above but show a special visualization of the three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field. By tracing magnetic field lines at extremely high resolution, we can calculate a 3D map of the so-called squashing factor (Q) - a scientific measure designed to indicate the presence of complex structuring in the magnetic field. We then integrate the map along the line-of-sight, with special weightings to create a composite that resembles solar eclipse images. This is intended to highlight the inherent complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and its intimate connection to visible emission from the solar corona.